Article from the Irish Independent

Irish exports to surge as US and India links deepen

By Thomas Molloy

Wednesday February 22 2012

HSBC forecasts a 71pc trade jump over the next 13 years

IRELAND'S exports will surge in the years ahead as trade deepens with the US, India and Poland despite our current problems, HSBC bank forecast in a report on international trade.

The report sees Irish exports surging 71pc in the next 13 years as the global economy expands and demand for chemicals and pharmaceuticals remains strong.

This trade will help drive the total value of goods exported from this country to $262bn in 2025 from $151bn today, the bank added.

HSBC predicted the US will replace the UK as Ireland's largest trading partner over this period -- a change that would mark a historic shift for a country that has been dependent on the British economy for several centuries.

The Anglo-Chinese bank said Irish trade will probably slow over the next two years as the economy continues to struggle with austerity but said trade will then pick up quickly.

Despite the surge in trade, Ireland will only be keeping pace with the global economy which is expected to expand 73pc between now and 2025, HSBC said. That growth will be led byEgypt, India, China, Indonesia and Brazil, the report added.

Patterns of Irish trade have developed strongly around two key trade corridors: the US and the UK, the report said. It noted that trade with India and Poland is growing substantially and agri-business and pharmaceuticals are core to these corridors and to Ireland's restored economic confidence.

Growth

Ireland's agri-business trade with core trade partners such as the US, Poland and India is growing at twice the rate of more general trade growth and this means that businesses in those sectors will be exposed to change, the report added.

Ireland's largest trade partners are the US, UK, Belgium, Germany and France. HSBC said the US will overtake the UK because trade with the US is growing the fastest of the top five trading partners at nearly 5pc a year.

Trade with India is also a strong part of Ireland's emerging pattern of trade: here it is anticipated trade will increase at an annualised rate of 6pc in the near term.

- Thomas Molloy

Irish Independent